If you queried American citizens as to whether they would support a monetary experiment conducted by the Federal Reserve to stimulate economic growthan unorthodox approach that would mostly benefit the government, large corporations and wealthy investors at first, but would ultimately help everyone elsewould they approve?
And if you explained that it might take some time to deliver the desired outcome of higher employment at higher wages, and that people in the vast majority of households would have to accept much lower rates of return on their savings in the meantime, wouldnt a few perceptive respondents tilt their heads and ask: How long?
So why does such a reasonable question raise such ire from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke? Responding to a recent editorial in The Wall Street Journal citing persistent low economic growth as perhaps an indication that the Feds unconventional monetary policies are not working as intended, Bernanke fairly bristled with indignation, writing in his Brookings Institution blog that he never promised monetary policy would be a panacea for our economic troublesand besides, nobody claims that monetary policy can do much about productivity growth.
Such defensiveness is not reassuring. Its been nearly six years since the recession officially ended in June 2009. Still, the Fed continues to pursue its zero-interest-rate policy in the name of supporting the recovery, even as the negative aspects of this approach are imposing significant economic costs.
According to a report issued in March by Swiss Re, the worlds second-largest reinsurance company, the Feds policy of financial repression has cost U.S. savers roughly $470 billion in lost interest income. Other unintended consequences described in the report include crowding out viable private markets and lowering the funds available from long-term investors to be used for the real economy.
Bernankes riposte to those who would question the wisdom of perpetuating zero rates is to assert that the inflationary consequences predicted by some have not materialized. But after so much pumping, subdued inflation is hardly grounds for crowing; its further proof that the Feds policies are not working. Cheap money is not expanding production and raising wages as planned, its not increasing demandand thus not raising prices for goods and services. Inflation is the dog thats not barking.
Something is wrong. The monetary stimulus theory behind zero interest rates is not playing out in reality. Wheres the economic growth? This mystery will not be solved by former Fed prima donnas refusing to acknowledge that American citizens and their representatives in Congress have every rightindeed, Congress has a constitutionally mandated responsibilityto call to account those who have been appointed to the task of regulating U.S. money.
No one is accusing anyone of less-than-noble intentions or less-than-heroic efforts in utilizing central bank powers to influence economic outcomes. But when monetary authorities themselves are repeatedly stymied by less-than-optimal results, its time to consider changing course. An accountable Fed would accept the notion that its monetary stimulus strategy needs to be examined because it has not delivered anticipated results, by the Feds own projections, within a reasonable time period.
Maybe the problem stems from the Feds enhanced regulatory scrutiny over banks lending decisions in the wake of the crisis. Overregulation may have had an especially inhibiting effect on community banks. Before the Dodd-Frank bank regulation law passed in 2010, an average of more than 100 new banks opened each year; in the five years since 2010, only one new bank has opened. Fear of violating regulations has caused many hometown banks to reject loan applications from traditional customerswith the result that small business lending has been dampened. And that factor alone is a blow to economic growth.
Then, too, the normal money multiplier has not been functioning properly due to banks massive buildup of excess reserves, which have gone from $1.9 billion in August 2008 to a staggering $2.6 trillion currently. A study issued by the Cleveland Fed in February states that banks now find it both easier and more attractive to hold excess reserves than make loans. Why? Fed policies have altered the terms of the trade-off; the marginal benefit of holding reserves has increased because the Fed now pays interest on them, while the marginal cost in terms of forgone interest on loans has decreased under the low-rate conditions engineered by the same Fed.
So in crafting its monetary strategy to stimulate economic growth, it seems the Fed has given short shrift to the middle-income Americans who fuel the private sectorthe true engine of productive economic growth. How much has consumer demand decreased because personal savings accounts pay zilch? How much has employment and production suffered because entrepreneurs cant get loans from their local banks?
Yet, even as business investment languishes and manufacturing has hit the skids, and with Americas annual growth rate coming to a near halt at 0.2 percent for this years first quarter, our monetary authorities seem clueless about the impact of their own policies. Indeed, the Feds instinctive position is to call for more government intervention in the economy. Dont expect any initiatives to scale back regulatory burdens or liberate market forces to spur real economic growth.
Instead, you can expect increasing calls from Fed officials to give themselves more room to maneuver by raising their target rate of inflation to 4 percent or highernever mind that such monetary mischief utterly confounds business planning and leads to the misallocation of investment resources. And you can expect further demands for massive government spending on public infrastructure development to create jobs. Its what Bernanke recommends in his blog post, insinuating that some other part of government needs to join the Feds stimulus party to attain economic growth.
But shouldnt we start by figuring out the reasons for the Feds own lack of success?