Those of us who predicted last December that the Federal Reserve would lower its target interest rate before this year’s presidential election in November could well be proven right. In all likelihood, the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, will announce at least a 25-basis point cut on September 18.

This action would make investors happy. It would also signal “mission accomplished” on the inflation front and portend additional rate reductions coming later this year and into 2025. The Fed’s pivot to cutting interest rates may even be hailed as a validation of Bidenomics and boost the prospects for Vice President Harris.

Does that suggest that there is a political component when evaluating the impact of central bank decisions on the economy? It’s rude to question the independence of the Fed in formulating monetary policy and taking actions to raise or lower interest rates. A little thought exercise, though, may provide valuable context.