Data on the demographic composition of the college freshman class of 2028 are beginning to come in, the first to reflect the changing legal environment since last year’s Students for Fair Admissions vs. Harvard and the related University of North Carolina Supreme Court case that essentially outlawed affirmative action in admission practices.

Actually, a few populous states like California, Michigan, and Washington had already outlawed affirmative action in their state universities, providing some insight into what to expect following the Supreme Court decision. The most watched statistic is the admission of black students. At UCLA and the University of Michigan even before the Supreme Court decision, only about six percent of new freshmen were blacks, a group constituting about 13 percent of the American population.

Black Admissions Are Mixed

Data for the new class entering this fall shows the proportion of black admissions similarly to be in the single digits (five to nine percent) at such prestigious universities as M.I.T., Princeton, and Brown and at highly selective liberal arts colleges like Amherst. That represented a sizable decline from last year’s freshman class; from 15 to 9 percent at Brown, for example, and to 8.9 percent at Princeton.

At Washington University in Saint Louis, the black proportion fell by four percentage points. Relative to their share of the American population, blacks seem to be somewhere between 30 and 50 percent underrepresented at these highly competitive schools, which is to be expected given generally weak black high school performance and admission test scores.

At M.I.T., the combined proportion of blacks and Hispanics fell from 25 percent of total freshman admissions in 2023 to 16 percent in 2024. The botched delayed release of the FAFSA form by the Federal government possibly had some effect as well.

But there are two big exceptions to this picture: Harvard and Yale, the oldest of the Ivy League Schools. At Harvard, the proportion of blacks fell—but from an outsized 18 to 14 percent, while at Yale it held constant at 14 percent.

Those proportions are dramatically greater than at other peer schools, and even greater than the overall black proportion of the total population. One distinctly uncharitable but reasonable interpretation of Harvard and Yale’s behavior: following Supreme Court decisions is for who Leona Helmsley once called “the little people.” These schools seem to be saying, “Our first adherence is to the Woke Supremacy that rule our institutions. We are going to continue to show preferences based on race towards blacks: what is the Supreme Court going to do about it?”

I have read that a similar situation exists regarding black admissions to the University of Virginia. Why are Harvard, Yale, and perhaps UVA so different than their competitors with respect to the changing proportion of black admissions? Similarly, Yale reported a 19 percent Hispanic freshman class, and Harvard 16 percent, nearly double the proportion at Brown or M.I.T. Why?

The classifications of students by race and ethnicity varies a good deal, and definitional problems abound. For example, “Hispanic” is not truly a racial classification but rather a geographic-linguistic one, as “Hispanics” are also white or black. Whatever the race, the number of Hispanics identified within elite universities generally showed a decline this year.

Interestingly, at several schools, the number of students reporting no racial data increased significantly (from 4 to 8 percent at Harvard), a healthy trend for those like myself who believe an unhealthy American obsession with race would be reduced if racial data were not even collected. I suspect more students are fearful of giving their race for fear it might reduce admission possibilities.

The reporting from the schools is often vague, lacking interesting details, probably designed to mute potential criticism. For example, Notre Dame noted that 30 percent of its freshmen students were from “historically underrepresented groups,” which for that school might include Protestants. Emory University reported its data in a somewhat convoluted way (as it has two campuses), but appeared to have about 11 percent of its total freshman student body black, but also a double-digit proportion of international students of unknown racial origin (a characteristic at many other schools).

Meanwhile, at schools seemingly showing adherence to the Supreme Court decisions, Asian admissions gained substantially—from 40 to 47 percent at M.I.T. for example, 29 to 33 percent at Brown. There are far more Asians in the M.I.T. freshmen class than whites, probably justifiable based on high school grades and admission test scores.

At this writing, I have not seen data for many prominent private schools, such as Northwestern, Univ. of Chicago, and Stanford, as well as most elite public schools. But what is emerging is that many schools, perhaps very reluctantly, seem to be generally adhering to the mandate of not considering race in making admissions decisions.

Asian Admissions

The very real bias against Asian applicants seems to have eased considerably. Interestingly, given the obsession of the collegiate Woke Supremacy with race, some schools are now simply talking about “students of color,” a category that lumps together Asians and blacks. That proportion has apparently stayed nearly the same at many schools as the decline in the percent of black admissions is offset by the gains by Asians.

A more consequential question than “how many underrepresented’ minority applicants are admitted is how many graduate?” Several noted scholars (e.g. Richard Sander at UCLA, Amy Wax at Penn) have noted that minority students admitted despite lower academic qualifications often encounter very painful troubles later on—law students failing to pass the bar exam, for example.

Interestingly, amidst all the obsession about the biological/linguistic categorization of students is one form of student underrepresentation not discussed: enrollment by gender. Arguably, a collegiate War Against Males proceeds apace; will campus men soon seek protection under the Endangered Species Act?