If you are wondering why the Obamacare exchanges are in so much trouble, a whole slew of “experts” think they have the answer. From President Obama to health insurance industry CEOs to the editors of The New York Times to health policy gurus everywhere—the verdict is almost unanimous. Not enough young and healthy people are buying health insurance.

So, what’s the solution to that problem? Carrots and sticks, according to the conventional wisdom. We need to make health insurance more attractive to the young. But we also need to make the penalties for not buying insurance harsher. By hook or crook, we are told, we must get the young folks to buy, buy, buy or ........ or what? The exchanges will go into a death spiral? All the insurers will leave the market? The whole Obamacare experiment will implode?